Fair warning. This will not be one of my nostalgic posts. Tonight I am looking to the future. I think it is safe to say that I will make a couple predictions and then discuss something that happened today.
First I work with tech and as such returned home from one of the largest technology conferences in the US last weekend. TCEA 2014 was exciting and fun, educational and reinvigorating. We played with everything from Google Glass to the latest in Chromebooks. Was it wrong that I got excited seeing the new Otterbox commuter wallet?
Based on what I observed and some articles I have been reading I identified some trends that I think we should be paying attention to in the educational world. I have mentioned them to a few people and to a person they have disagreed or even told me I was wrong.
The biggest change that is coming will be wearable technology. In the next five years we will be wearing more and more technology. Starting with our children, Generation C for connected will be dialed into information and social media more heavily than ever. Google Glass will grow up, currently it is a novelty item that makes a person look like they are having a seizure as they try to control it. As the demand increases and it moves out of beta Glass will start appearing in different configurations and will expand beyond silly looking frames. We will be wearing clothes with sensors and the like that will keep us informed and help others learn our preferences. Some may find this intrusive but the reality is our children will be so use to this information gathering they won't care.
I also saw the complete passing of the desktop. Already in a steady decline the desktop and the clunky laptop will disappear from our counter tops and desks. Like the interactive whiteboards we couldn't go ten feet without tripping over in the last six years the desktop and the clunky laptop will only be around in special circumstances.
Now for predictions that no one believed. In five years Microsoft Office will be relegated to special uses and projects. CTE will still be teaching it but more than likely it will disappear in its current form completely. Microsoft is pushing Office 365 and Open Office to try and regain market share they have been steadily losing to Google Docs the last few years. As more and more people discover that Google Docs are an acceptable alternative to Office and Apple continues to include its office suite for free the demand for the high price Office will rapidly diminish.
Another expensive product I see losing a large market share and becoming marginalized will be the Adobe products. Pulling out of TCEA in a year when schools are trying to figure out their new pricing contract with contract restrictions placed on government contract purchases will cause a decline in its use. Yes, schools will figure out how to buy it but the time and energy that schools will have to put into renewing a contract every year will cause most to seek out alternative software. This may not be a problem for business but everyone should know software war is one in the public education system. The free apps and websites that are available now may not be as extensive as Adobe programs but will slowly improve and grind away at market share as Generation C becomes more savvy at finding alternative ways to accomplish the tasks expensive software packages of the past were sole providers of.
This brings me to the final observation. Tonight I was called over to discuss the idea of building a new computer lab. The Principal was excited by the prospect of building the lab and told me she had $70,000 to do it. This is a secondary school that does not have any labs to speak of as the technology was not kept up by past administration. She is starting from scratch in a blank room. She will have to buy furniture, network drops, electricity and the PC's.
Our cost for a PC with a 5 year warranty is a thousand dollars. Automatically subtract $30,000 from her budget if she wants to buy 30 PC's. Add in another $20,000 for the chairs and the built in cabinetry she desires and she is now at $50,000. Her last $20,000 goes into electricity, projector, and network drops. She will in all likelihood end up with maybe $10,000 left.
So here is the deal, I have built these labs before. The way the district has built them in the past is not the most efficient nor the best teaching environment. They tend to put built in wall counters around the perimeter of the room with a cord tray under the counter. Our wood worker is very good but he will still end up running about $7500. This creates a rigid classroom with no mobility and a difficult situation for students to look at a screen or board.
As I have said earlier PC desktops will be going away before long. Replaced in most schools by Chromebooks and tablets, the desktop PC will only be on the teachers desk or the bigger CTE labs. Everyday computing tasks are much cheaper to run on the smaller devices. In five years everything will be mobile and the clunky desktops will be following the old CRT monitors to the scrap heap. So then why would she want to buy them?
Finally network cabling is expensive to install and every brat with a stick of gum or a restless foot will kick and break the drops at the rate of four or five a year. So why install it? Why not use wireless?
This is the question I had. I suggested a cart of Chromebooks with a good set of wireless access points would accomplish everything she wants. Total cost of $6500. Throw in good tables and chairs for $10,000 and you now have a classroom lab that is re-configurable for better collaboration and usage.
Why would she not even let me finish my sentence and hear my suggestion? She isn't thinking past what everyone currently does. She has always been in schools with the big lab I described and the idea of the smaller more agile and useful lab is scary. What about theft? Will they hold up? The reality is she didn't really want to hear what I had to say. As a Principal who is in charge why would she listen to me. This will change in five years.
In five years when her school is lagging behind the other schools you can point to this waste of $70,000 to the reason behind the building being behind. That lab could be built for less than $20,000 and she could then go on to buy carts of Chromebooks for her other rooms. To answer her concerns, theft and breakage? Who cares? Chromebooks have a 3 year warranty and only cost $280. With the MDM that geofences the building they brick if taken out of the building.
Eventually the Instructional Technology Specialist will rise to an importance in education many will not believe. No longer tied to a campus there will be fewer ITS and they will move into a coaching and advisory role. Decisions like building a lab will go to the ITS and they will have to become more adept at predicting what is coming so that they can prepare for the future and not build for the past. The administrator I tried to council earlier? She will be playing catch up with her budgets and wonder why she never has the money to quite complete what her campus will need.
First I work with tech and as such returned home from one of the largest technology conferences in the US last weekend. TCEA 2014 was exciting and fun, educational and reinvigorating. We played with everything from Google Glass to the latest in Chromebooks. Was it wrong that I got excited seeing the new Otterbox commuter wallet?
Based on what I observed and some articles I have been reading I identified some trends that I think we should be paying attention to in the educational world. I have mentioned them to a few people and to a person they have disagreed or even told me I was wrong.
The biggest change that is coming will be wearable technology. In the next five years we will be wearing more and more technology. Starting with our children, Generation C for connected will be dialed into information and social media more heavily than ever. Google Glass will grow up, currently it is a novelty item that makes a person look like they are having a seizure as they try to control it. As the demand increases and it moves out of beta Glass will start appearing in different configurations and will expand beyond silly looking frames. We will be wearing clothes with sensors and the like that will keep us informed and help others learn our preferences. Some may find this intrusive but the reality is our children will be so use to this information gathering they won't care.
I also saw the complete passing of the desktop. Already in a steady decline the desktop and the clunky laptop will disappear from our counter tops and desks. Like the interactive whiteboards we couldn't go ten feet without tripping over in the last six years the desktop and the clunky laptop will only be around in special circumstances.
Now for predictions that no one believed. In five years Microsoft Office will be relegated to special uses and projects. CTE will still be teaching it but more than likely it will disappear in its current form completely. Microsoft is pushing Office 365 and Open Office to try and regain market share they have been steadily losing to Google Docs the last few years. As more and more people discover that Google Docs are an acceptable alternative to Office and Apple continues to include its office suite for free the demand for the high price Office will rapidly diminish.
Another expensive product I see losing a large market share and becoming marginalized will be the Adobe products. Pulling out of TCEA in a year when schools are trying to figure out their new pricing contract with contract restrictions placed on government contract purchases will cause a decline in its use. Yes, schools will figure out how to buy it but the time and energy that schools will have to put into renewing a contract every year will cause most to seek out alternative software. This may not be a problem for business but everyone should know software war is one in the public education system. The free apps and websites that are available now may not be as extensive as Adobe programs but will slowly improve and grind away at market share as Generation C becomes more savvy at finding alternative ways to accomplish the tasks expensive software packages of the past were sole providers of.
This brings me to the final observation. Tonight I was called over to discuss the idea of building a new computer lab. The Principal was excited by the prospect of building the lab and told me she had $70,000 to do it. This is a secondary school that does not have any labs to speak of as the technology was not kept up by past administration. She is starting from scratch in a blank room. She will have to buy furniture, network drops, electricity and the PC's.
Our cost for a PC with a 5 year warranty is a thousand dollars. Automatically subtract $30,000 from her budget if she wants to buy 30 PC's. Add in another $20,000 for the chairs and the built in cabinetry she desires and she is now at $50,000. Her last $20,000 goes into electricity, projector, and network drops. She will in all likelihood end up with maybe $10,000 left.
So here is the deal, I have built these labs before. The way the district has built them in the past is not the most efficient nor the best teaching environment. They tend to put built in wall counters around the perimeter of the room with a cord tray under the counter. Our wood worker is very good but he will still end up running about $7500. This creates a rigid classroom with no mobility and a difficult situation for students to look at a screen or board.
As I have said earlier PC desktops will be going away before long. Replaced in most schools by Chromebooks and tablets, the desktop PC will only be on the teachers desk or the bigger CTE labs. Everyday computing tasks are much cheaper to run on the smaller devices. In five years everything will be mobile and the clunky desktops will be following the old CRT monitors to the scrap heap. So then why would she want to buy them?
Finally network cabling is expensive to install and every brat with a stick of gum or a restless foot will kick and break the drops at the rate of four or five a year. So why install it? Why not use wireless?
This is the question I had. I suggested a cart of Chromebooks with a good set of wireless access points would accomplish everything she wants. Total cost of $6500. Throw in good tables and chairs for $10,000 and you now have a classroom lab that is re-configurable for better collaboration and usage.
Why would she not even let me finish my sentence and hear my suggestion? She isn't thinking past what everyone currently does. She has always been in schools with the big lab I described and the idea of the smaller more agile and useful lab is scary. What about theft? Will they hold up? The reality is she didn't really want to hear what I had to say. As a Principal who is in charge why would she listen to me. This will change in five years.
In five years when her school is lagging behind the other schools you can point to this waste of $70,000 to the reason behind the building being behind. That lab could be built for less than $20,000 and she could then go on to buy carts of Chromebooks for her other rooms. To answer her concerns, theft and breakage? Who cares? Chromebooks have a 3 year warranty and only cost $280. With the MDM that geofences the building they brick if taken out of the building.
Eventually the Instructional Technology Specialist will rise to an importance in education many will not believe. No longer tied to a campus there will be fewer ITS and they will move into a coaching and advisory role. Decisions like building a lab will go to the ITS and they will have to become more adept at predicting what is coming so that they can prepare for the future and not build for the past. The administrator I tried to council earlier? She will be playing catch up with her budgets and wonder why she never has the money to quite complete what her campus will need.